Bitcoin’s long-term holder group is still growing, but a key measure of their profitability has dipped back below neutral. This introduces a note of caution into the market’s structure, even as older coins continue to be taken out of active circulation.
In a market note on April 17, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Supply has increased from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16—a rise of 3.06 million BTC in just three months. However, at the same time, the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), measured on a seven-day moving average, has fallen to 0.979 and has now stayed below 1.0 for five consecutive days.
“The long-term holder cohort continues to expand,” Adler wrote. “This combination matters: the volume of coins in the LTH cohort is growing, but part of the spent old coins is already exiting at a loss.” In simpler terms, more coins are aging into long-term status, but when some of these long-term holders sell, they are no longer doing so at a profit.
On the supply side, the picture still looks positive. Adler points out that the LTH Realized Supply chart shows “a sharp increase in the volume of coins in the LTH cohort,” rising from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. This trend signals “an expansion of long-term holding and a compression of liquid supply,” though part of the increase simply reflects existing coins passing the 155-day threshold to become “long-term,” not just new purchases.
A rising LTH Realized Supply doesn’t automatically mean new demand is entering, but it does indicate that more supply is becoming inactive for longer periods. Adler contrasts the current situation with the 2022 bear market, when LTH Realized Supply peaked at 15.31 million BTC in November before declining as older coins were sold. For now, he says the current pattern is more consistent with a consolidation phase near $75,000 than with a broad market sell-off.
The caution comes from the behavior of holders when they sell. Adler notes repeated dips in the LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February, indicating that long-term holders who are selling have periodically been doing so at a loss. The latest reading of 0.979 follows a deeper drop in late March and early April, when the indicator fell to 0.798 and stayed below 1.0 for seven straight days before briefly recovering.
Adler is careful not to label this as capitulation. “The current picture is a series of recurring shallow dips below 1.0 with quick recoveries, not a prolonged capitulation,” he explained. “The key question now is whether the current series will hold above the March lows (0.798) or if SOPR will break below them. A repeat move deeper, combined with a simultaneous reversal of Realized Supply downward, is the real red flag for a regime change.”
This distinction is crucial because it sets clear conditions for when the current stress would turn into a more serious problem. As long as SOPR remains in what Adler calls a “shallow-loss zone” and bounces back quickly, it suggests short-term pressure rather than a full bearish reversal. Historically, such brief dislocations have acted as buying opportunities rather than confirming a major downtrend.
For a truly bearish signal, Adler argues two things need to happen together: the LTH SOPR must fall significantly and stay below 1.0, while the LTH Realized Supply must start to decline. This would indicate not just long-term holders selling at a loss, but a broader shift from accumulation to active distribution.
For now, Adler’s conclusion is balanced. The overall structure remains positive because the long-term holder supply is still rising, but the recent loss-selling means the market outlook is no longer purely bullish. The next move in SOPR, especially in relation to the March low, will be critical in determining the next phase.The March low could indicate whether this is a temporary period of stress or the beginning of a more significant change in Bitcoin ownership. Currently, BTC is trading at $77,880.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin LongTerm Holder Caution SOPR Below 10
Beginner Questions
What does longterm holder mean in Bitcoin
A longterm holder is typically defined as a Bitcoin investor who has held their coins without moving them for at least 155 days They are often seen as committed less reactive to shortterm price swings
What does supply increase for longterm holders mean
It means the total amount of Bitcoin being held in wallets identified as belonging to longterm holders is growing More coins are being moved into cold storage or simply not being sold indicating accumulation
What is the Spent Output Profit Ratio
SOPR is a metric that shows whether Bitcoin being sold on a given day is on average being sold at a profit or a loss A SOPR above 10 means sellers are realizing a profit Below 10 means they are realizing a loss
Why is SOPR below 10 a big deal
When SOPR is consistently below 10 it suggests that the average seller is capitulatingselling their Bitcoin at a loss This is often associated with fear panic or bear market bottoms but can also indicate sustained selling pressure
If longterm holders are cautious why are they holding more Bitcoin
This seems contradictory but its key Their caution means they are choosing not to sell even at a loss They are accumulating or holding through the downturn believing in longterm value which increases their total supply held
Intermediate Advanced Questions
How can longterm holder supply increase while SOPR is below 10 Arent they selling
This is the core dynamic The increasing LTH supply shows net accumulation The SOPR below 10 is driven by other market participantslikely shortterm holders traders or forced sellersrealizing losses LTHs are holding firm amidst this distress selling
Is this combination bullish or bearish for price
Historically it has been a