Bitcoin has recovered toward $70,000 after a sharp drop to around $67,000, but according to Glassnode, the rebound still lacks the strong demand needed to turn this stabilization into a lasting recovery. In its latest weekly report titled “Awaiting Liquidity,” the on-chain analytics firm noted that several pressures have eased simultaneously, including selling intensity, ETF outflows, and dealer-driven market imbalances. However, muted spot trading volumes, low leverage, and significant overhead supply suggest the market is not yet in a high-conviction breakout phase.
Glassnode’s main argument is that while market structure has improved, it is not enough to declare the correction over. The report stated that Bitcoin is showing some positive signs after a sharp decline, with prices stabilizing, ETF flows improving, and derivatives positioning becoming less one-sided. The selling pressure that drove the recent downturn appears to be easing, and the market looks more balanced than it did a week ago. Still, this balance exists within a narrow and fragile range.
A new accumulation cluster is forming around current price levels, with investors who bought in the past one week to one month holding at an average cost of around $70,200. This provides a developing support level, but Glassnode describes it as vulnerable because the current buyer base remains modest.
Above the market, resistance is more substantial. Investors who bought in the past one to three months have an average cost basis around $82,200, and there is a larger cluster of short-term holder supply between roughly $93,000 and $97,000. The report also highlighted a significant concentration of short-term holder supply above $84,000, which could become a source of selling pressure if prices attempt a sustained recovery.
On-chain data indicates a market under stress but not in panic mode. Relative unrealized losses have stabilized above 15% of market capitalization over the past two months, a pattern similar to the fear seen in the second quarter of 2022, though still far from the extreme capitulation seen during events like the FTX collapse. At the same time, realized profits have declined sharply. The seven-day moving average of entity-adjusted realized profit has fallen from about $3 billion per day in July 2025 to below $100 million today, a drop of more than 96%. According to Glassnode, this reflects both sides of the current situation: fewer profitable sellers are left to distribute coins, but fresh capital flowing into the market is also weak.
Spot market activity remains relatively subdued following the sharp sell-off to the $67,000 region, with exchange volumes showing only a modest increase during the recovery. Compared to the stronger participation seen in previous bullish moves, current spot volumes remain low. This suggests the rebound toward $70,000 has been driven more by selective dip-buying and short-term repositioning than by broad-based spot demand returning at scale.
In Glassnode’s view, this is the missing ingredient. ETF flows have improved, with the seven-day average turning slightly positive after a prolonged period of outflows, indicating early institutional re-engagement. However, the scale of these inflows remains limited compared to earlier accumulation phases.
Derivatives markets also reflect caution. Perpetual funding rates remain negative, meaning traders are still paying to hold downside exposure, while futures open interest has stayed relatively low instead of expanding with the price bounce. Options markets are no longer showing acute stress, but they are not pricing in strong upside conviction either. Short-dated skew remains tilted toward puts, indicating continued demand for downside protection.Downside protection remains in place, even though longer-term positioning appears more balanced. A key short-term factor is the upcoming options expiration on Friday, which covers weekly, monthly, and quarterly contracts. According to Glassnode, dealers are still heavily positioned with short gamma in the $70,000 to $75,000 range, with about $10 billion of that exposure set to expire. Once this technical pressure passes, Bitcoin could become more responsive to broader macroeconomic and liquidity trends. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,961.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the idea that Bitcoins recovery might be missing a crucial element based on insights from onchain analytics firms like Glassnode
Beginner Conceptual Questions
1 What does Bitcoins recovery is missing a crucial element even mean
It means that while the price of Bitcoin has gone up key onchain data suggests that the type of investor buying and the overall market behavior dont yet match the patterns of a strong sustainable bull market
2 What is onchain data and why is it important
Onchain data is public information recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain like how many coins are moving whos holding them and at what price they were bought Its like looking at the fundamental health of the network beneath the price helping to see if a price move is backed by real adoption or just speculation
3 What is the crucial element thats supposedly missing
Analysts often point to sustained high demand from new longterm investors as the missing element Instead the market might be driven more by shortterm traders and existing holders which can make the recovery more fragile
4 So the price is up Isnt that a good enough sign of recovery
Not necessarily Price can rise due to shortterm hype or trading activity A healthy recovery is typically supported by a broad base of new users buying and taking custody of their coins for the long term not just trading them back and forth on exchanges
Intermediate Market Dynamics Questions
5 What specific onchain signals are analysts like Glassnode looking at
They look at metrics like
Exchange Flows Are coins flowing into exchanges or out
EntityAdjusted Activity Is transaction growth coming from many new users or just a few large whales
Realized Cap MVRV Are most holders still in profit Is the current price well above the average price most coins were bought for
LongTerm Holder Supply Are the coins held by patient investors increasing or decreasing
6 If new investors arent driving this who is
The current activity is often attributed to