Bitcoin’s rebound from its February 6 low of $60,000 shows early signs of structural improvement, but the move still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed breakout, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun. In an April 20 video, the analyst noted that while long-term holders are accumulating and strategic capital is entering the market, persistent selling from short-term holders and whales continues to limit gains.
Maartun framed the current situation as a question of market character rather than raw price performance. Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, roughly 24% above what he called the bear market low, but he said that alone does not confirm whether the market is turning higher in a sustainable way.
“The real question isn’t how far the price has moved. It’s what kind of move this actually is,” he said. “Is this the start of a new trend or just another rally that gets sold into? That distinction matters because misreading this phase is exactly how capital gets misallocated.”
On-Chain Data Still Suggests Caution
His core argument is that the market’s foundation has improved even if the price hasn’t yet confirmed it. Over the past 30 days, long-term holder supply has increased by about 354,000 BTC, a shift he called “structural accumulation.” In Maartun’s view, this signals that coins are being absorbed and removed from active circulation by participants who are less sensitive to short-term volatility.
“That’s not a small number. That’s structural accumulation,” he said. “Coins are being absorbed and taken out of active circulation. Long-term holders aren’t reacting to short-term volatility. So when their supply increases, it usually means the market is quietly building a stronger base.”
However, that constructive backdrop is only one side of the story. Maartun said a large part of the recent price push appears to have come from a more tactical mix of strategic buying and speculative positioning. He highlighted a rapid capital raise by Strategy, which brought in about $2.66 billion in 48 hours, including $1.16 billion on April 13 and another $1.56 billion on April 14. He argued that such an aggressive capital injection would normally be expected to produce a stronger market response. When it doesn’t, it implies that substantial supply is meeting demand.
On that front, Maartun pointed to two seller groups. The first is short-term holders, who have moved roughly 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Importantly, he noted this is happening while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, meaning those holders are selling at a loss rather than from a position of strength.
“We’ve seen roughly 60,000 BTC move to exchanges from this group,” he said. “And importantly, this is happening while SOPR is below one, which means they’re selling at a loss. They bought higher and now they’re exiting into strength. That’s classic behavior in a bear market environment.”
He didn’t present that flow as entirely bearish. Instead, he described it as part of a broader rotation in which weaker hands sell into bids from stronger buyers. Still, he said it is a feature more commonly associated with bear market rallies than with a clean continuation of an uptrend.
The second source of supply is whales. According to Maartun, wallets holding more than 100 BTC have been increasing their exchange deposits, suggesting that distribution is picking up again at current levels. This matters because it creates a market where improving long-term structure coexists with active near-term selling pressure.
Price action, in his view, reflects that tension. Bitcoin remains below the short-term holder realized price, which he placed around $83,000. Maartun described that level as a key pivot: in bull markets, price tends to hold above it, while in weaker phases it often acts as resistance. For now, Bitcoin is still trading below it, and he sees this as a sign that the market has not yet decisively shifted into a bullish phase.The market has yet to achieve a clear breakout above major overhead resistance levels. This results in what Maartun describes as a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” While long-term holders are accumulating, strategic demand is emerging, and weaker participants are being shaken out, short-term holders continue to sell at a loss, large holders are distributing on strength, and the price has not reclaimed a key structural level. This places the market in a conditional state. If demand can continue to absorb supply and push Bitcoin back above the short-term holder realized price, the improving backdrop could evolve into a more sustained uptrend. Until then, Maartun’s assessment remains cautious: the internal structure is strengthening, but the rally has not yet proven its staying power. At press time, BTC was trading at $75,088.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Recent Surge Large Holder Selling
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean that large holders are selling
It means that investors or entities who own very large amounts of Bitcoin are moving their coins to exchanges or selling them which can increase the available supply on the market
2 Why would someone sell while the price is going up Isnt that counterintuitive
Not necessarily Large experienced investors often aim to sell high to lock in profits They might believe the price is near a peak or want to take money off the table after a big runup anticipating a potential drop later
3 What is a setup in this context
A setup suggests the recent price surge might be a trap for lessinformed buyers The theory is that large sellers could be creating excitement and demand to sell their holdings at higher prices potentially leading to a sharp decline once their selling pressure overwhelms the buying
4 How can I find out if large holders are selling
You cant see individual accounts but data from blockchain analytics firms tracks wallet activity Metrics like Exchange Netflow or changes in whale wallet balances are used as proxies
5 Should I be worried about my Bitcoin investment if this is happening
Its a cautionary signal not a guaranteed crash It means you should be more cautious avoid investing money you cant afford to lose and consider it a reminder that markets are volatile It doesnt mean you must sell immediately
Advanced Strategic Questions
6 Whats the difference between normal profittaking and a coordinated distribution
Normal ProfitTaking Occurs steadily as prices rise its a natural market function
Coordinated Distribution Implies a strategic largescale effort by major players to unload holdings into rising retail demand often marked by sustained high exchange inflows and slowing price momentum despite high volume
7 What are key onchain metrics to watch for this kind of activity
Exchange InflowsOutflows A sustained spike in BTC moving to exchanges is a primary warning sign