BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul shared a sharply divided outlook on the Bitcoin and crypto market in an X post late Monday. He suggested the current downturn could either represent a lasting peak in “organic adoption” for today’s major liquid tokens or simply a longer-term correction before another speculative surge.
Paul described himself as “50%/50% between two scenarios,” presenting this split as a practical portfolio management issue rather than endorsing a single narrative. The post entered an already tense market conversation and quickly drew criticism from other commentators, who saw the 50/50 stance as non-committal.
Has Bitcoin Reached Its ‘Final Top’?
In his bearish “A” scenario, Paul’s central argument is one of saturation: crypto has benefited from “every tailwind imaginable,” including widespread brand recognition, political attention, and what he views as minimal regulatory resistance under the current U.S. administration. Yet, he contends, demand and real-world usage haven’t grown beyond previous cycles.
He pointed to failed experiments, noting that “El Salvador kind of adopted and then abandoned bitcoin…not helpful or useful to their people,” and argued many apps and institutions “tried crypto, [but] it wasn’t useful to their needs in its current form.” Paul compared the situation to the internet’s shakeout in 2000: the underlying idea remains transformative, but most specific tokens and protocols may not survive. He also warned that liquidation risks may not be over, noting that while “we saw some big liquidations in the market…plenty of larger ones [could] potentially [go], pushing things far lower.”
The bullish “B” scenario hinges on macro sentiment and market structure. Paul suggested crypto could still benefit from what he termed “late stage capitalism and financial nihilism,” with Bitcoin and other assets attracting speculative flows and occasional demand as “fiat alternatives.” He added that, beyond price, developers continue to build and usage is “quietly growing” in certain niches. Crypto also remains, in his view, a fertile ground for “coordinated pumps by the rich and powerful,” implying the incentives for creating volatility persist.
“If these two scenarios were really 50% each,” he wrote, “a moderate allocation to crypto would be sensible due to the asymmetric upside.”
Blockchain Investment Group CIO Eric Weiss criticized Paul’s post as “classic fence-sitting,” arguing it provided “zero actionable insight.” Paul responded that maintaining constant directional certainty is “dishonest (or idiotic),” and defended probability-weighted positioning as standard practice for traders and portfolio managers.
“I shared the exact decision I made as a result of this analysis,” Paul wrote. “Traders and portfolio managers are always optimizing across probabilities…nothing novel there. And often the best decision is to be flat in an asset, at least for a time.”
Paul also suggested Weiss’s frustration might stem more from performance than the analysis itself, adding that he has “consistently cautioned against the buffoonish ‘number can only go up’ theocracy that led so many to take risks and make decisions they regret.”
The discussion expanded when Steven Lubka, VP of Investor Relations at Nakamoto, argued there’s a “60-70% probability” that most of crypto—outside of “stablecoins and infrastructure for TradFi”—has “run its course,” while Bitcoin likely endures as a global store-of-value competitor.
In reply, Paul delved into Bitcoin’s long-term equilibrium and its surrounding business models. “I could see BTC ‘surviving’ in collectible form, but in my opinion, it’s ‘unstable’ in its current form,” he wrote. “It needs to be bigger or smaller. If the BTC price stabilizes, the security budget gradually dwindles to near zero. It’s already comically low relative to BTC’s market cap today, but that ratio will worsen substantially.”As inflation rewards continue to decline, he connected this trend to what he called “extraction” by intermediaries. “Exchanges, brokerages, and custodians are constantly profiting—extracting value,” Paul wrote. “Without a steady stream of new money entering the market, prices naturally fall due to all this extraction. If Bitcoin simply stabilized at current levels and moved sideways, very few crypto businesses would survive in their current form. Coinbase, for example, would likely see its value drop by over 90%.”
On the trading side, Paul noted he hadn’t traded crypto at all in the past six months and “just missed selling most of my crypto when Bitcoin reached $125,000.” He had hoped for a medium-term high around $135,000 but found the recent selloff “deeper and longer than expected.” Now, with volatility increasing, he’s trading more actively and is currently positioned for a bounce from the long side. He plans to reassess if Bitcoin approaches $90,000.
He also suggested a possible middle-ground scenario: Bitcoin could trade between $15,000 and $40,000 for up to a year before reaching new highs. This could be triggered by forced selling from crypto firms, including a potential stress event driven by MicroStrategy, though he noted that liquidation isn’t the only risk. He questioned whether debt rollovers or covenants might force changes in behavior without leading to a total wipeout.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,178.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Ari Pauls Bitcoin Outlook
Q1 Who is Ari Paul and why is his opinion on Bitcoin important
A1 Ari Paul is the cofounder and Chief Investment Officer of BlockTower Capital a major cryptocurrency investment firm His opinion carries weight because hes a seasoned professional managing significant capital in the crypto space so his analysis is closely watched by investors
Q2 What exactly did Ari Paul suggest about Bitcoins price
A2 He suggested that Bitcoin may never surpass its previous alltime high again He argues its role as a primary riskoff asset or digital gold may be challenged potentially capping its price growth
Q3 Does this mean he thinks Bitcoin is going to zero
A3 No not necessarily His view is more about a ceiling on its price not that it will become worthless He believes Bitcoin could still hold significant value and trade within a range but may not achieve the explosive cycledriven new highs seen in the past
Q4 What is a riskoff asset and why does it matter for Bitcoin
A4 A riskoff asset is an investment that investors flock to during economic uncertainty or market stress For years some proponents argued Bitcoin was becoming digital gold Paul questions if it can reliably serve that role which if true could limit demand during crises
Q5 What reasons did he give for this bearish outlook
A5 Key reasons include increased competition from other cryptocurrencies and digital assets potential regulatory hurdles the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies and the possibility that Bitcoins historical growth cycles may not repeat in the same way
Q6 Is this a consensus view in the crypto industry
A6 No this is a highly contentious and minority view Many analysts and investors strongly disagree believing Bitcoins scarcity growing institutional adoption and role as a decentralized store of value will eventually drive it to new highs
Q7 As a beginner should I sell my Bitcoin based on this opinion
A7 You should never make investment decisions based on a single opinion no matter how expert This is one perspective among many Always do your own research understand Bitcoins volatility