Bitcoin is currently experiencing on-chain losses similar to those seen during the Luna/UST collapse, but at a much higher price point, which changes what this signal likely means for the current downturn. According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss has fallen deeply into negative territory. The 7-day moving average dropped to -$1.99 billion on February 7th before slightly improving to -$1.73 billion by February 10th, placing this period among the most severe loss-dominant stretches on record.
Adler describes this as the second deepest negative reading in history, only exceeded by June 18, 2022, when the metric hit -$2.24 billion during the Luna/UST crash. He argues the key detail is persistence: Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained below roughly -$1.7 billion for five consecutive days. This forms a sustained cluster of seller pressure, indicating multi-day capitulation behavior rather than a single shock.
The mechanism is straightforward: realized losses are exceeding realized profits as the market works through supply from participants forced or willing to sell below their cost basis. “The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” Adler wrote. He states that a key reversal trigger would be the metric returning above zero, signaling a transition from loss to profit dominance. As long as it remains deeply negative, seller pressure persists.
The companion chart for Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA) shows losses rose to about $2.3 billion on February 7th and held near that level through February 10th—another historical rarity. Adler calls this “one of the highest smoothed levels in the entire history of observations,” comparable to June 2022. He notes that the 7-day smoothing understates peak real-time stress. During the 2022 episode, single-day losses were roughly three times higher than the weekly-smoothed figure. In the current window, he points to a single-day realized loss of $6.05 billion on February 5th, the second-largest one-day loss in Bitcoin’s history.
The critical comparison lies not just in magnitude but in context. In 2022, similar realized losses occurred with Bitcoin trading around $19,000. This time, losses are being realized around $67,000 after a pullback from $125,000. Adler frames this as a correction flushing out late entrants rather than an ecosystem-wide failure. “Back then, Realized Loss at $2.7B was occurring at a price of $19K,” he wrote. “Now, comparable loss volumes are being locked in at a price of $67K, which suggests not a systemic crash but rather a flushing out of late bull-cycle entries. This is capitulation of local top buyers, not a fundamental loss of network value.”
Adler highlights two key markers for a turnaround: first, a sustained move of Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) back above zero for multiple weeks, signaling a transition to profit dominance; and second, a decline of Realized Loss (7DMA) below $1 billion, indicating that forced selling is fading. The risk, in his view, is that continued price weakness could turn this “cleansing stress” into something more severe. He flagged the sub-$60,000 area as a threshold where growing realized losses alongside further price declines could shift the correction into “full-blown capitulation.”The downturn could continue and intensify. For now, Adler’s central argument is that Bitcoin is generating losses comparable to those seen with Luna, but without causing the same kind of systemic damage. The scale of the on-chain activity is similar, but the market impact tells a different story. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,924.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the potential for a major Bitcoin selloff at the 67000 level framed in a natural conversational tone
Understanding the Situation
Q1 I keep hearing Bitcoin might crash like Luna did What does that even mean
A It means analysts see similar warning signslike extreme leverage overoptimism and shaky support levelsthat could trigger a rapid panicdriven selloff The comparison to Luna is about the type of sudden cascading crash not that Bitcoin would go to zero like Luna did
Q2 Why is 67000 such a critical price level
A 67000 was the previous alltime high before the recent surge In markets old peaks often act as major resistance or support If the price struggles to hold above it traders who bought near that peak may sell to break even triggering more selling
Q3 Whats the difference between a normal correction and a major selloff or crash
A A normal correction is a healthy 1020 pullback A major selloff is a steeper faster drop driven by panic forced liquidations and a breakdown of key market structure similar to past crypto crashes
Causes and Mechanisms
Q4 What exactly could trigger such a selloff from here
A Key triggers could be a wave of leveraged long positions being forcibly closed negative macro news a major exchange problem or a sudden loss of momentum that turns optimism to fear
Q5 What are liquidations and how do they make a crash worse
A When traders use borrowed money to bet on higher prices exchanges automatically sell their assets if the price falls too much to repay the loan This forced selling pushes the price down further triggering more liquidations in a dangerous domino effectthis is a liquidation cascade
Q6 How is this different from the crash to 19000 in 2022