XRP is showing a familiar on-chain stress pattern after falling below the average price its holders paid—a move that Glassnode says has historically aligned with investor capitulation, realized losses, and a gradual move toward stabilization rather than a quick rebound.
In a February 9 post, the on-chain analytics firm noted that XRP “lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling,” as reflected in a sharp decline in spent output profitability. Glassnode highlighted that its 7-day exponential moving average of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dropped from 1.16 in July 2023 to 0.96 currently, indicating that “holders are realizing significant losses” and that “on-chain profitability flipped negative.”
SOPR readings below 1 generally signal that the market is, on average, selling coins at a loss. This phase can persist when sellers feel pressured to exit and buying interest comes mainly from longer-term investors. Glassnode suggests the current situation echoes a previous XRP cycle: “This setup closely resembles the September 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR stayed below 1 for an extended consolidation period before stabilizing.”
This isn’t the first such warning from Glassnode. On February 1, the firm pointed out that “The XRP Realized Price is trading at $1.48,” adding that “The current market structure is very similar to that of April 2022.” Earlier, on January 19, Glassnode again drew parallels to 2022, noting that XRP’s structure “closely resembles that of February 2022,” with newer buyers accumulating below the cost basis of longer-term holders. That post also highlighted the growing “psychological pressure on top buyers” as the pattern continues.
Capitulation or Breakdown Ahead?
Some market observers view the sustained sub-1 SOPR not as a red flag, but as a process of transferring assets from weaker to stronger hands. One reply from the account @investorie framed it as a potential bottoming signal:
“This is a classic capitulation signal, not a structural failure. SOPR below 1 means weak hands are exiting at a loss. That pressure gets absorbed, and historically it’s how durable bases form, not how long-term trends end.”
Another respondent, 0xsimba, compared it to past Bitcoin sell-offs while agreeing with Glassnode’s historical analogy:
“When SOPR drops below 1 for an extended period, pain transfers from weak to strong hands. The September 2021–May 2022 period saw prolonged consolidation before recovery. A similar setup may be forming, though confirmation is needed.”
If Glassnode’s comparison holds, the near-term outlook isn’t about a single turning point, but rather whether XRP remains in a loss-realization phase long enough to flush out the remaining weak sellers. Stabilization would likely follow once profitability metrics stop declining and SOPR can sustainably climb back above the break-even level.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.4225.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Glassnode Report on XRPs SOPR Pattern
Beginner Questions
1 What is Glassnode
Glassnode is a leading blockchain data and intelligence platform that provides onchain analytics metrics and insights for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and XRP
2 What does SOPR mean
SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio Its a metric that shows whether investors on average are selling their coins at a profit or at a loss
3 What does it mean that XRPs SOPR has fallen below 1
It means that on average XRP holders who are selling their coins right now are selling them at a loss compared to the price they originally bought them for This often signals widespread capitulation or fear in the market
4 Why is comparing current behavior to 20212022 important
Markets often move in cycles If current data shows patterns similar to a past cycle analysts use it to gauge where we might be in the current market cyclesuch as nearing a bottom or preparing for a new phase
5 Is SOPR below 1 a good or bad sign
In the short term its typically seen as a sign of market stress and negative sentiment However historically periods where SOPR stays below 1 can indicate that selling pressure is exhausting itself which sometimes precedes a potential market bottom or recovery
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 What specific pattern from 20212022 is XRP allegedly following
The report likely highlights that during the 20212022 cycle XRPs SOPR fell below 1 during major corrective phases or bear markets The current drop below 1 may suggest XRP is in a similar corrective phase within its larger market cycle
7 How reliable is the SOPR metric for predicting price
SOPR is a useful sentiment and onchain indicator not a direct price predictor It helps identify periods of extreme fear or greed While it can signal potential turning points it should always be used alongside other technical and fundamental analysis
8 Whats the difference between SOPR and aSOPR
aSOPR is the Adjusted SOPR