Arthur Hayes is preparing for a rebound in liquidity in 2026, suggesting that Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2025 was less about a loss of faith in crypto and more a simple story of tight dollar credit. In his latest essay, “Frowny Cloud,” the Maelstrom CIO explains he is increasing his risk exposure by investing in MicroStrategy (MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and Zcash (ZEC). He expects U.S. dollar liquidity to turn upward after a year where Bitcoin underperformed both gold and U.S. tech stocks.
Hayes views 2025 as a challenging year for the common practice of treating Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-risk proxy for tech stocks. He argues Bitcoin performed “as expected” in a tightening credit environment, while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for their own unique reasons despite shrinking dollar liquidity.
He believes gold’s strength is driven by sovereign nations’ balance sheets, not retail investors, stemming from distrust in U.S. Treasury holdings following past asset freezes. “If the U.S. president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” he writes, describing central banks as buyers unconcerned with price.
Regarding stocks, Hayes interprets the AI rally through the lens of industrial policy. He claims the U.S. and China have treated “winning AI” as a strategic imperative, which has softened normal market pressures and helps explain why the Nasdaq diverged from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025.
This divergence is key to his 2026 outlook: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain its momentum. “Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rise when dollar liquidity expands. The only problem is the recent divergence,” Hayes writes, emphasizing that the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” remain the primary force he’s tracking.
The Three-Pillar Liquidity Outlook
Hayes’ 2026 forecast depends on a sharp recovery in dollar credit creation through three channels:
1. A growing Fed balance sheet via Reserve Management Purchases (RMP).
2. Commercial bank lending to “strategic industries.”
3. Lower mortgage rates spurred by policy-driven demand for mortgage-backed securities.
He states that quantitative tightening faded as a major headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady source of balance sheet expansion. He claims RMP adds at least $40 billion per month and expects that pace to increase with government funding needs.
The second pillar is bank credit, which he says accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025, with major lenders willing to make loans where government equity or purchase agreements reduce risk.
The third is housing. Hayes points to Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward buying mortgage-backed securities, arguing that lower mortgage rates could trigger a wealth effect and further credit growth.
He ties it all together with a straightforward conclusion: if liquidity turns positive, Bitcoin should follow. “Bitcoin … and dollar liquidity bottomed around the same time,” he writes, arguing the next major move depends more on renewed credit expansion than on market sentiment.
MSTR, Metaplanet, and ZCash
Hayes describes himself as a “degen speculator” and says Maelstrom is already nearly fully invested, but he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture potential upside if Bitcoin rallies. Instead of using perpetual futures or options, he is taking long positions in MicroStrategy and Metaplanet for leveraged exposure through their corporate balance sheets.
His timing is based on relative valuation. He compares each company’s “Digital Asset Treasury” value to Bitcoin’s price in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet, dollars for MicroStrategy) and notes these ratios are near their lows of the past two years, having fallen substantially from mid-2025 peaks.
He adds a key condition: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin.”He believes that due to the leverage built into their capital structures, these businesses will outperform Bitcoin during market upswings. He also notes ongoing accumulation of Zcash, arguing that the departure of developers from the Electric Coin Company is not a negative sign. He states, “We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will develop better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands.” At the time of reporting, MSTR was trading at $179.33.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ Arthur Hayes Bet on MSTR Metaplanet Zcash
BeginnerLevel Questions
Who is Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes is a cofounder of the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX and a prominent often controversial figure in the crypto investment world His market commentary and investment moves are closely watched
What does Bitcoin liquidity shifts mean
It refers to the movement of money and investor interest away from direct Bitcoin holdings and into other assets that are seen as ways to gain exposure to Bitcoins price or benefit from related trends like monetary policy changes
What are MSTR and Metaplanet
MSTR A publicly traded US business intelligence company that has adopted a strategy of buying and holding large amounts of Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset
Metaplanet A publicly traded Japanese investment and consulting firm that has recently adopted a similar strategy buying Bitcoin for its corporate treasury
Why would someone buy MSTR or Metaplanet stock instead of just buying Bitcoin
Investors might do this to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoins price through a traditional stock or to bet on a companys specific strategy for managing its Bitcoin treasury
What is Zcash
Zcash is a privacyfocused cryptocurrency While it shares some technical similarities with Bitcoin its key feature is the ability to shield transaction details using advanced cryptography
How are these three bets connected
Arthur Hayess thesis suggests that as global monetary policy weakens fiat currencies capital will seek hard assets like Bitcoin MSTR and Metaplanet are proxies for Bitcoin itself Zcash is a bet that as Bitcoin adoption grows demand for financial privacy in crypto transactions will also surge
Advanced Strategic Questions
What is Hayess specific thesis behind betting on Metaplanet
He views Metaplanet as a strategic way to bet against the Japanese Yen As the Bank of Japan keeps interest rates low the JPY may weaken Metaplanet by holding Bitcoin effectively holds a dollardenominated hard asset If JPY fallsBitcoin rises the stock could benefit doubly
Isnt buying MSTR just a more complicated and risky way to own Bitcoin
Yes it adds execution risk You