Bitcoin ended the week of June 5 with a drop of nearly 20% — its biggest single-week decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022. But on-chain analyst Ali Martinez is pushing back against the widespread fear. In a technical post on X, he argues that the market is heading into a major accumulation phase, not the start of a deeper structural breakdown.
Martinez’s argument is based on several on-chain metrics that have historically signaled market bottoms, not further selling. Bitcoin’s fall to $59,000 — its lowest point since 2024 — flushed out what he calls “overleveraged premiums” across the board, according to his X post. He says this kind of forced deleveraging is what typically sets the stage for a real bottom, not just a temporary bounce.
Two key data points support Martinez’s analysis. First, long-term holder behavior. During the recent downturn, long-term investors sold over $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin, temporarily increasing exchange reserves and adding to short-term selling pressure. Martinez notes that this pattern has historically marked the final phase of supply absorption before accumulation begins.
Second, the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss. The drop to $59,000 pushed more than 10.46 million BTC into an underwater position. According to Martinez, every time the supply-in-loss metric has crossed the 10 million mark in the past, it has accurately signaled macro bottoms in previous cycles. He considers this one of the most reliable indicators available.
Instead of naming a specific price floor, Martinez identified two accumulation zones using MVRV band analysis — the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. Historically, the most reliable accumulation windows occur when MVRV falls between the 1.0 and 0.8 bands, which currently correspond to roughly $53,900 and $43,150. He is also watching three key moving averages as structural reference points: the 200-week simple moving average at $62,800, the 300-week at $55,000, and the 400-week at $42,500.
Fellow analyst Benjamin Cowen echoed this view, telling his audience that investor psychology is entering the territory historically linked to major cycle bottoms. He estimates this phase could last through Q3 and possibly into October.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, recovering from the $59,000 lows as the market tries to figure out whether the worst week since FTX marked a capitulation bottom or just another step in a longer correction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the headline Every time this Bitcoin metric has crossed this level the market has hit its bottom and it just happened again
The questions are written in a natural conversational tone with answers that are clear and simple
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q What is this metric everyone is talking about
A Its a specific data point used to measure how cheap or expensive Bitcoin is compared to its historical price The most common one mentioned in these headlines is the MVRV ZScore or the Puell Multiple It basically tells us if investors are selling at a loss or a profit
Q Why does crossing this level mean the market has hit bottom
A Historically every time this metric has dropped to that specific low number it has meant that almost everyone who wanted to sell has already sold and the price cant go much lower Its like a panic bottom signal
Q Does this mean I should buy Bitcoin right now
A It suggests that the worst of the price drop might be over Historically buying near these levels has been very profitable But no signal is 100 guaranteed Its a strong buy zone indicator not a guarantee
Q What does crossing this level actually look like on a chart
A It looks like a line dropping below a specific horizontal line on a graph For example if the MVRV ZScore drops below 0 thats the cross It means the market value of Bitcoin is lower than its realized value
Q Is this the same as buying the dip
A Kind of but more specific Buying the dip is any price drop This metric is trying to identify the bottom of the dipthe point where the dip ends and the recovery begins
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Q Which specific metric is the headline referring to