Ga shi fassarar rubutun daga Turanci zuwa Hausa:
Arthur Hayes ya ce yanayin Bitcoin na macro yana komawa bullish. Ya yi jayayya cewa kashe-kashen yaki, gibin kasafin kudin Amurka, da kirkirar bashi da bankuna ke yi na iya wuce damuwa game da karamin ma'auni na Fed. Da yake magana a taron Bitcoin 2026 a Las Vegas, wanda ya kafa BitMEX ya bayyana cewa Bitcoin yana kara mayar da martani ga "hauhawar farashin yaki," ba kawai zagayowar AI ba. Hayes ya tsara wannan canji a kan wani ra'ayi mai sauki: gwamnatoci suna shirin kashe karin kudi a kan tsaro, kuma dole ne a sami hanyar biyan wannan kashe-kashen. A ganinsa, wannan ya mayar da Bitcoin zuwa yanayin da ya saba a matsayin kadara mai saurin canzawa da kuma labarin kudi mai wuya. "Tun da yaki ya fara, Bitcoin ya fi kyau," in ji Hayes. "Ya fi NASDAQ da hannayen jarin SaaS. Kuma a takaice, ina ganin Bitcoin yanzu yana mai da hankali kan hauhawar farashin yaki."
Jigon hujjar Hayes ba shine Fed za ta koma bayyane ta sake yin sassauci ba. A maimakon haka, ya mai da hankali kan abin da yake gani a matsayin sake fasalin ma'auni tsakanin Fed da tsarin bankunan kasuwanci. Wannan na iya ba da damar jami'ai su ce Fed tana raguwa yayin da suke kiyaye yanayin dalar Amurka gaba daya.
Bitcoin da Labarin Hawkish na Fed
Hayes ya yi magana game da damuwar kasuwa game da Kevin Warsh, wanda masu zuba jari ke ganin zai iya zama shugaban Fed mai tsauri saboda sukar da yake yi game da babban ma'auni na babban bankin. Hayes ya ce wadannan tsoro sun rasa iyakokin aiki da ke fuskantar jami'an kudi yayin da gwamnatin Amurka ke ci gaba da fitar da bashi mai yawa. "Idan kasuwa ta yi imani cewa za a sami karancin dalar Amurka a zagaye saboda abin da Warsh zai yi da Fed, to za su yi kasala game da Bitcoin da sauran kadarorin hadari," in ji Hayes. "Wannan shi ne abin da muka gani a kafafen yada labarai game da zuwan Fed mai tsauri bayan Mayu lokacin da Warsh ya karbi mulki. Yanzu, ban yarda da hakan ba."
A cewar Hayes, Warsh zai kasance da iyaka saboda bukatar Baitulmalin na ci gaba da aiki da kasuwar lamuni. Ya yi jayayya cewa Fed ba za ta iya rage ma'auninta a cikin wani yanayi mara kyau ba yayin da gwamnatin Amurka ke da gibin kasafin kudi mai yawa. "A karshen rana, lokacin da ka fitar da bashi dala tiriliyan 38 kuma kana bukatar ka biya gwamnati, Babban Bankin Amurka zai yi abin da aka umarce shi ya yiโtabbatar da cewa kasuwa tana cikin tsari don mutane su iya siyan wannan bashi," in ji Hayes.
Cinikin Ma'auni na Banki
Babban tsarin Hayes shine musanya: bankunan kasuwanci suna rage yawan ajiyar su na Fed kuma su maye gurbinsu da Treasuries da repos. A wannan yanayin, ma'auni na Fed na iya zama karami a takarda, yayin da tsarin banki ke karbar karin bashin gwamnati. "Manufar wannan duka shine cewa tasirin net akan dalar Amurka ba shi da wani tasiri," in ji Hayes. "Babu wani abu da ake sayarwa, babu wani abu da ake saya. Musanya ce kawai. Wannan labari ne na tsari kawai game da wanda ya kamata ya rike me."
Wannan bambanci yana da mahimmanci ga Bitcoin saboda Hayes ya ce masu zuba jari ya kamata su kula da girman ma'auni na Fed da aka bayyana fiye da ko tsarin gaba daya yana kirkirar ko lalata dalar Amurka. Idan bashi kawai ya tashi daga Fed zuwa ma'auni na bankunan da aka tsara, tasirin na iya zama kasa da tsananin da kasuwa ke tsoro.
Hayes ya danganta wannan canji ga sassaucin dokokin banki na Amurka kuma musamman ya nuna canje-canje a cikin Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio, wanda ya ce ya fara aiki a ranar 1 ga Afrilu. A ganinsa, canjin doka yana ba da damar manyan bankuna kamar JPMorgan da Citibank su karbi karin Treasuries da repos, yayin da kananan bankuna za su iya fadada lamunin gine-gine da masana'antu. Ya kuma ambaci kiyasin S&P Global cewa rage ma'auni na ESLR na iya haifar da sabbin lamuni dala tiriliyan 1.3. Hayes ya yi jayayya cewa bangaren bukatar zagayowar lamuni ya riga ya bayyana. Ya ce kashe-kashen tsaro, samar da albarkatu masu mahimmanci, da kayan aikin AI duk yanzu sun zama fifikon tsaron kasa. Wannan yana haifar da masu karbar bashi da bukatar gwamnati ta tallafa, yana sa su zama masu sha'awa ga bankuna.
"Me yasa bankuna za su sami bukatar lamuni? Daya daga cikin sukar wannan bincike daga wasu masu sha'awar macro na shine suna da'awar cewa tsarin banki baya samar da isasshen lamuni ko kuma babu isasshen bukata," in ji Hayes. "To, muna da babban tushen bukata wato Ma'aikatar Yaki ta Amurka."
Ya ce bankuna za su ba da lamuni ga masu samar da tsaro, masu hakar albarkatu, da masu gina manyan cibiyoyin bayanai yayin da kashe-kashen AI ya zama wani bangare na tsarin tsaron kasa. Hayes ya jaddada cewa lamunin banki yana da mahimmanci musamman saboda, a ganinsa, yana da tasirin ninka fiye da lamunin babban bankin. Ya kiyasta cewa kusan dala tiriliyan 4 na bashi za a iya kirkirar shi a karshe, wanda shine tushen sabon kyautatawa.
Hayes ya ce ginshiฦin ruwansa ya kai kasa a watan Nuwamba na shekarar da ta gabata, kusan lokaci guda da Bitcoin. Ya yi jayayya cewa bayan wani lokaci na rashin tabbas da yaki ya haifar, kasuwa na iya shirye don tashi sama.
"Ina ganin mun dan yi ta yanke. Mun dan yi yaki. Yanzu lokaci ya yi da za mu fita," in ji Hayes. "Kuma shi ya sa na yi imani Bitcoin zai tashi sama. Ina ganin burina na karshen shekara shine $125,000, ko menene, ba komai, na yi kuskure."
A lokacin bugawa, ana cinikin Bitcoin a $76,628. Hoton da aka yi da DALL.E, ginshiฦi daga TradingView.com.
Tambayoyi da Aka Yi Yawa
Ga jerin tambayoyi da aka yi yawa game da hasashen bullish na Arthur Hayes na Bitcoin daga matakin farko zuwa na ci gaba
Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko
Q Wanene Arthur Hayes kuma me yasa zan damu da hasashensa na Bitcoin
A Shi ne wanda ya kafa BitMEX, babbar musayar crypto. Shahararren mutum ne a masana'antar kuma masu ciniki da yawa suna bin nazarin kasuwarsa.
Q Shin Arthur Hayes yana cewa Bitcoin tabbas zai kai 125,000
A A'a. Yana cewa yanayin yana komawa bullish, ma'ana yanayi suna da kyau ga tashi. Hasashe ne, ba garanti ba. Adadin 125,000 shine farashin da ya yi niyya.
Q Menene "yanayin yana komawa bullish" yake nufi a cikin kalmomi masu sauki
A Yana nufin abubuwan tattalin arziki da kasuwa na yanzu sun fara nuna cewa farashin Bitcoin zai tashi, ba sauka ba.
Q Shin ya kamata in sayi Bitcoin a yanzu saboda wannan hasashen
A Ba lallai ba. Kada ka taba yanke shawarar zuba jari bisa ra'ayin mutum daya. Yi bincikenka kuma ka yi la'akari da hadarin da kake iya dauka. Wannan batu ne guda daya kawai.
Q Yaushe Hayes yake ganin Bitcoin zai kai 125,000
A Bai bayar da takamaiman kwanan wata ba, amma yawanci yana kallon tsawon watanni 6-12 don hasashensa na macro. Manufa ce ta matsakaicin lokaci.
Tambayoyi na Matsakaici da Ci gaba
Q Wadanne abubuwan macro na musamman ne Hayes ya nuna don wannan yanayin bullish
A Yana mai da hankali musamman kan ruwa na babban bankinโmusamman juyowar Babban Bankin Amurka zuwa rage yawan riba da shirin Baitulmalin na saka karin daloli a tsarin. Karin daloli yawanci suna kwarara zuwa kadarorin hadari kamar Bitcoin.
Q Me yasa 125,000? Shin akwai dalili na fasaha don wannan adadi na musamman
A Ee, Hayes yakan yi nuni ga kololuwar zagayowar Bitcoin da kuma matakan Fibonacci retracement. 125,000 kusan tsawo ne na 1.618 daga kololuwar 2021 kuma yana daidai da saman samfurin tashar farashinsa na yanzu.
Q Menene zai faru idan Fed bai rage riba ba ko kuma ya canza hanya