Wintermute ya ce hauhawar Bitcoin ta karshe ta gaza a gwajin farko na babban tattalin arziki, yana mai cewa motsin ya fi dogaro da leverage da short covering fiye da buƙatun spot na yau da kullun. A cikin sabunta kasuwa na Mayu 18, kamfanin ciniki ya nuna hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, hauhawar yawan ribar Treasury, ficewar ETF, da sabbin tsammanin hauhawar riba a matsayin bayan da ke bayan juyar da kai tsaye a cikin kadarorin dijital. "A makon da ya gabata mun ce za mu gano da sauri irin hauhawar da wannan take. Mun gano," in ji Wintermute. "BTC ta gaza a 200-day a kan farkon girgizar tattalin arziki na gaske, wanda ke nuna maka cewa squeeze ne ke tafiyar da shi duk tsawon lokaci."
Sabuntawar kamfanin ta tsara makon a matsayin sake farashin da tattalin arziki ke jagoranta. CPI na Afrilu ya zo a 3.8% a kowace shekara, sama da kiyasin 3.7% na gaba ɗaya, yayin da core CPI ya tashi 0.4% a kowane wata. Wintermute ya ce girgizar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta zama da wuya kasuwanni su yi watsi da ita, yana mai lura cewa girgizar makamashi mai tsawo yanzu tana motsawa zuwa core inflation kuma albashi na gaske ya zama mara kyau a karon farko cikin shekaru uku.
Riba ta amsa da sauri. Yawan ribar Treasury na shekaru 10 ya tashi da maki 28 a makon zuwa 4.58%, matsayinsa mafi girma tun Satumba 2025, yayin da fed funds futures ya shafe duk raguwar da ake tsammani na 2026 kuma ya fara farashin damar 44% na hauhawar riba zuwa Disamba, sama da 22.5% a makon da ya gabata. Wintermute ya ce labarin kasuwa ya canza daga "yaushe za su rage" zuwa "za su kara" a cikin kwanaki biyar na ciniki kawai.
Wannan sake farashin ya shafi kadarorin dogon lokaci. Wintermute ya ce Treasuries na shekaru 20 da sama sun fadi 2.8%, yayin da zinariya ya fadi 3.8% duk da yanayin geopolitical. Brent crude ya tashi 8.6%, wanda ya jagoranci kamfanin zuwa ƙarshe cewa "abubuwan da suka yi aiki su ne abubuwan da ke haifar da matsalar."
Me yasa Bitcoin $75,000 Ita ce Layin a cikin Yashi
Bitcoin ta ɗan motsa sama da $82,000 bayan kuri'ar CLARITY Act, amma sai ta juya da kai tsaye kuma ta rufe Jumma'a kusa da $78,000, ta fadi 5.7% a makon. Zamewar karshen mako zuwa $77,000 ta haifar da liquidation $657 miliyan, ciki har da $584 miliyan daga matsayi na dogon lokaci. Ethereum ta yi rashin nasara fiye da haka, ta fadi 10.2% a makon. Wintermute ya ce ETH ta ci gaba da raunana a duka kasuwannin spot da derivatives, tare da ETH/BTC yana matsa 0.0275, funding ya yi laushi kuma relative implied volatility ya tashi. Kamfanin ya bayyana ETH a matsayin "kadarar da ba ta dace da wannan tattalin arziki ba."
ETF flows suma sun juya kan kasuwa. Bitcoin spot ETFs sun yi rikodin ficewar $1 biliyan a makon, suna ƙare makonni shida a jere na shigowa, yayin da ETH ETFs suka ga $255 miliyan sun bar samfuran. Wintermute ya yi amfani da bayanan Glassnode da ke nuna cewa cibiyoyi suna "sayarwa cikin ƙarfi," tare da matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki bakwai na net flows a negative $88 miliyan a kowace rana, matsayi mafi rauni tun tsakiyar Fabrairu. "Lokacin da leverage shine mai siye na gefe, juyawa yana da sauri," in ji Wintermute.
Kamfanin ya ce Bitcoin har yanzu tana ƙasa da matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki 200 kusa da $82,200 bayan an ƙi ta sau biyar a wannan watan. Yankin tallafi na gaggawa shine $76,000 zuwa $78,000, bisa ga sabuntawar, yayin da karyewar $75,000 zai iya buɗe hanya zuwa $70,000 zuwa $72,000.
Wintermute bai yi watsi da babban tsarin shari'ar Bitcoin ba. Ya lura cewa ajiyar musayar sun kasance kusa da ƙananan shekaru da yawa, masu riƙe na dogon lokaci har yanzu suna tara, kuma CLARITY Act na ci gaba da tafiya bayan ya share kwamitin banki na Majalisar Dattawa. Kamfanin ya kuma ce tokenized Treasuries sun kai $15 biliyan a kan sarkar, yana bayyana sashin a matsayin yanki na ci gaba mai dorewa.
Duk da haka, Wintermute ya yi jayayya cewa gajeren lokaci flows sun fi mahimmanci fiye da labarin tsarin a yanzu. "Bayanan flow ya nuna cewa cibiyoyi sun yi amfani da hauhawar don ɗaukar riba maimakon ƙara, kuma a cikin gajeren lokaci wannan ya fi mahimmanci fiye da labarin tsarin," in ji kamfanin.
Gwaji na gaba, bisa ga sabuntawar, shine ko Bitcoin za ta iya riƙe yankin $76,000 zuwa $78,000 ta hanyar samun kuɗin Nvidia a ranar Laraba, Mayu 20. Riƙewa zai "sake gina wani amincewa," in ji Wintermute. Karyewar ƙasa da $75,000, tare da sake saita funding da negative ETF flows, na iya kawo ƙananan $70,000s cikin wasa da sauri. A lokacin rubutawa, BTC tana ciniki a $77,297. Hoton da aka nuna an ƙirƙira shi da DALL.E, chart daga TradingView.com.
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa bisa bayanin Wintermute ya ce hauhawar Bitcoin ta kasance squeeze ne kawai kuma faduwa zuwa ƙananan 70000 na iya zuwa
Tambayoyin Gabaɗaya na Masu Farawa
1 Menene ma'anar squeeze a wannan mahallin
Squeeze yana faruwa lokacin da masu ciniki da suka yi fare akan faduwar Bitcoin aka tilasta musu su saya da sauri saboda farashin ya tashi maimakon Wannan matsin siye yana tura farashin sama fiye da haka amma hauhawar sau da yawa na wucin gadi ne kuma ba ta dogara da buƙata mai ƙarfi na dogon lokaci ba
2 Wanene Wintermute
Wintermute babban kamfanin ciniki ne na crypto kuma mai yin kasuwa Suna amfani da algorithms don samar da ruwa a musayar Saboda suna ciniki da yawa sosai, nazarin su na yanayin kasuwa ana ɗauka da mahimmanci ta masu ciniki
3 Don haka Wintermute yana tunanin Bitcoin za ta fadi
Ba faduwa ba amma ja da baya mai mahimmanci Sun yi imanin cewa hauhawar farashin kwanan nan ta kasance ta wucin gadi kuma ta dogara da siye na tilas ba sha'awar masu zuba jari na gaske ba Suna hasashen faduwa zuwa ƙananan 70000 wanda har yanzu babban farashi ne amma ƙasa da kololuwar kwanan nan
4 Shin wannan tabbaci ne cewa Bitcoin za ta fadi
A'a Wannan hasashe ne bisa bayanan kasuwa da tsarin ciniki Kasuwannin crypto suna da canji kuma ba a iya tsammani Squeeze na iya juya zuwa hauhawar da za ta dore idan sabbin masu siye suka shigo amma nazarin Wintermute yana nuna akasin haka ya fi yiwuwa
Tambayoyi na Matsakaici na Yanayin Kasuwa
5 Ta yaya za a iya sanin ko hauhawar squeeze ce ko buƙata ta gaske
Masu nazari suna kallon ma'auni kamar Open Interest da Funding Rates A lokacin squeeze Open Interest yana fadi da sauri yayin da farashi ya tashi A cikin hauhawar ta gaske duka farashi da Open Interest suna tashi tare Wintermute mai yiwuwa ya ga tashin farashi tare da faduwar Open Interest
6 Wane matakin farashi na musamman Wintermute yake hasashen
Sun ambaci faduwa zuwa ƙananan 70000 Misali kusan 71000 zuwa 73000 Wannan yana nuna sun yi imanin cewa kololuwar squeeze ba ta da ƙarfi kuma farashin zai koma zuwa matakin tallafi mafi ƙasa