Recent on-chain data indicates a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Here’s what this could signal for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin NUPL Falls to 0.18
In a new X post, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode discussed the latest trend in Bitcoin’s NUPL. This indicator compares the total unrealized profit and loss held by investors on the Bitcoin blockchain.
The metric calculates this by reviewing the transaction history of each token to determine its last transfer price. If that previous price is higher than the current spot price, the token is considered to be holding an unrealized profit. Conversely, if the cost basis is lower, the token is “underwater.”
The exact profit or loss for a coin is the difference between these two prices. The NUPL totals these values for each category, subtracts them to find the network’s net position, and then divides the result by Bitcoin’s market capitalization. This shows how the net profit or loss compares to the asset’s total valuation.
The chart shared by Glassnode illustrates the trend in Bitcoin’s NUPL over recent years:
As shown, the NUPL surged above 0.5 during the rallies in 2024 and 2025, indicating investors held net profits exceeding half of Bitcoin’s market cap. These euphoric phases were followed by price declines that pushed the metric into the 0.25 to 0.5 range.
Bitcoin recovered from the first two declines, but the latest drop has led to an extended downtrend. The chart reveals this bearish movement has now brought the metric down to 0.18.
This level suggests profits are still dominant across the network, but they are significantly thinner than before. It falls within a zone that Glassnode associates with investor “hope/fear.”
“This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades,” the firm explained.
The last substantial drawdown into this region occurred during the 2022 bear market. At that time, Bitcoin’s price moved through this zone and into the “extreme fear” area below zero, where net losses were held by the majority of investors.
It remains to be seen how long Bitcoin will stay in this region this time and what will follow.
BTC Price
After dropping toward $65,000 on Thursday, Bitcoin has rebounded to $69,000 on Friday.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins NUPL Reentering the HopeFear Zone
Beginner Questions
What is NUPL
NUPL stands for Net Unrealized ProfitLoss Its a metric that shows the total unrealized profit or loss across all Bitcoin held in wallets expressed as a percentage of market cap It helps gauge overall investor sentiment
What are the Hope and Fear zones
These are emotional states reflected in the NUPL metric The Hope zone suggests investors are generally in profit and optimistic The Fear zone indicates widespread unrealized losses and pessimism The transition between them signals a shift in market psychology
Why does NUPL moving into the HopeFear zone matter
It matters because it can signal potential turning points in market cycles Historically shifts into these zones have preceded periods of increased volatility or trend changes as crowd psychology often drives market extremes
Is this a buy or sell signal
Not directly While it indicates shifting sentiment its not a standalone trading signal Its a context toollike a warning light on a dashboardnot a steering wheel Always combine it with other analysis
How often does this happen
It occurs multiple times within a market cycle typically during periods of significant price appreciation or decline Reentries into the Hope zone often happen during bull market corrections or early recovery phases
IntermediateAdvanced Questions
How is NUPL calculated
NUPL Market Cap Realized Cap values each coin at the price it last moved estimating the total cost basis The difference represents total unrealized profitloss
What historical patterns exist when NUPL reenters this zone
Historically moving from Fear into Hope has often coincided with the earlytomid stages of bullish recoveries However excessive time in Hope can precede local tops if sentiment becomes overly greedy
How does this differ from other onchain metrics like MVRV
NUPL and MVRV are closely relatedboth use Realized Cap NUPL expresses the difference as a percentage making emotional zones clearer while MVRV is a ratio They often tell similar stories but with different framing
Can NUPL stay in the Hope zone for a long time
Yes during