Anchorage Digital ya ce dabarun Bitcoin covered-call na iya samar da riba ta wucin gadi ga masu rike da BTC, amma kawai idan an gudanar da su da tsauri mai tsauri. Sabon binciken kamfanin ya yi gargadin cewa sayar da hauhawar farashin Bitcoin na iya taimakawa wajen rage asara a lokacin kasuwanni masu rauni, amma yana iyakance riba sosai idan BTC ya shiga daya daga cikin matakan hauhawar farashinsa masu zafi. Binciken, wanda Shugaban Bincike na Anchorage Digital David Lawant ya rubuta, ya duba rubuce-rubucen covered-call na tsari akan Bitcoin ta amfani da kwaikwayi na sa'a daya bisa ga saman implied-volatility na Deribit. Anchorage ya ce binciken ya hada da gwaje-gwaje guda 37,000 a kowane maki na shiga a cikin bayanansa daga Oktoba 2021 zuwa Afrilu 2026, yana mai da shi daya daga cikin mafi cikakken kokarin gano inda kudin shiga na BTC options ke aiki da inda ya gaza.
Anchorage ya yi jayayya cewa options na Bitcoin sun tashi daga wani yanki na derivatives na musamman zuwa kasuwa da cibiyoyi ke dauka da muhimmanci yanzu. Notional BTC options open interest ya karu kusan sau goma a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata, ya tashi sama da dala biliyan 100 a karshen 2025 kafin ya daidaita a kusan dala biliyan 60 yayin binciken. Takardar ta lura cewa wannan matakin ya fi girma fiye da open interest na dukan kasuwar futures na BTC. Karatu Mai Dangantaka: Littafin Wasan CME Gap na Bitcoin Mai Shahara Zai Iya Zuwa Karshensa
IBIT options sun kuma canza tsarin kasuwa. An kaddamar da su a karshen 2024, sun girma da sauri don yin gasa da Deribit a matsayin babban dandamali na BTC options open interest da ayyukan ciniki. Ga Anchorage, wannan yana nufin cewa cibiyoyi yanzu suna kimanta kasuwa mai zurfi, mai sauki, kuma daban-daban sosai daga abin da ya kasance watanni 18 da suka gabata.
Binciken ya mayar da hankali kan Bitcoin's volatility risk premium. Anchorage ya kwatanta 25-delta call implied volatility tare da hauhawar farashin da ya biyo baya a cikin kwanakin ciniki 21 masu zuwa na BTC, SPY, da QQQ. A cewar takardar, BTC's upside volatility risk premium ya kai kusan sau biyu zuwa uku na na ma'aunin hannun jari, tare da tazarar ta ci gaba a mafi yawan lokacin bayan 2024. Wannan premium shine abin da ya sa ya zama mai jan hankali.
Covered calls suna ba masu rike da BTC damar tattara kudin shiga na options yayin da suke ci gaba da fallasa ga kadarar ta asali har zuwa wani farashin da aka saita. Cinikin yana da muhimmanci: idan Bitcoin ya tashi sama da farashin, an iyakance shiga cikin hauhawar farashin. Anchorage ya bayyana wannan a matsayin babban kalubale na dabarun, ba karamin bayani ba.
Dabarar covered-call mai sauki ta 20-delta, kwanaki 30 ta yi kyau a cikin taga na watanni 12 na baya da aka gwada. Daga Afrilu 30, 2025 zuwa Afrilu 30, 2026, ta samar da riba mai tsafta ta kashi 5.5% akan matsayin BTC na asali, yayin da spot BTC ya fadi da kashi 19.4%. A cikin kwaikwayi na Anchorage, rufin ya biya kusan kashi uku na raguwar BTC. Haɗin portfolio's annualized volatility kuma ya ragu daga kashi 40.6% zuwa kashi 35.0%, kuma mafi girman raguwa ya inganta daga kashi 49.7% zuwa kashi 44.5%.
Amma sakamakon cikakken zagayowar ya kasance mai ban sha'awa sosai. Lokacin da aka yi amfani da dabarar guda ɗaya mara tacewa a duk lokacin daga Oktoba 2021 zuwa Afrilu 2026, ta samar da riba mara kyau ta kashi 0.5%, ko kuma kashi 0.1% a shekara. Wannan ya faru duk da kyakkyawan rabon nasara/asarar na 4.38 zuwa 1, tare da cinikai 57 masu nasara a kan 13 masu asara. Anchorage ya bayyana matsalar a matsayin "daukar dinari a gaban tururi."
Tururin shine halin Bitcoin na ci gaba, hauhawar farashin da ke da alaka da kai. A lokacin kololuwar zagayowar 2021, motsi na 2023-2024 daga kusan $16,000 zuwa sama da $70,000, da kuma kasuwar hauhawar farashin 2025 da ta tura BTC sama da $100,000 na dan lokaci, an sha kayar da gajerun kira yayin da farashin spot ya wuce matakan farashi. Shi ya sa takardar ta yi jayayya cewa rubuce-rubucen covered-call "dabarun gudanarwa ne mai aiki," ba rufin riba mai wucewa ba.
Sigar da ba a tace ba ta sayar da kira ba tare da la'akari da yanayin kasuwa ba. Sigar da aka horar ta jira dama mafi kyau. Anchorage ya gwada tacewa da ke buƙatar BTC's trend kada ya kasance mai karfi sosai, bisa ga tsarin matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki 10, kwanaki 30, da kwanaki 50, kuma ya buƙaci implied volatility ya kasance sama da matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki 90. A kan fita, samfurin ya yi amfani da manufar riba ta kashi 75%. Wani matakin, delta-based stop-loss, da kuma buffer na kwanaki biyu kafin karewa suna taimakawa rage gamma risk.
Karatu Mai Dangantaka: Cathie Wood ta ninka kan manufar Bitcoin dala miliyan 1.25.
Sakamakon ya canza sosai. Tare da waɗannan tacewa masu sauki don yanayin kasuwa da implied volatility, gudummawar covered-call ta tashi zuwa kashi 23.7% a duk lokacin, ko kashi 5.2% a shekara. Haɗin portfolio's Sharpe ratio ya inganta daga 0.20 zuwa 0.30, amma dabarun ta kasance a kasuwa kawai kashi 44% na lokaci.
Aikin sigogi na Anchorage kuma ya rage kewayon mai yiwuwa. Deltas kasa da 10 sun kasance masu daidaito amma sun yi rauni ga yawancin umarni na cibiyoyi. Sama da 25-delta, fallasa ta shugabanci ta mamaye dabarun a lokacin kasuwannin hauhawar farashin Bitcoin. Kwanaki bakwai da kwanaki 14 na karewa sun kasance marasa fa'ida a tsari saboda hauhawar farashin Bitcoin na cikin rana ya haifar da abubuwan stop-loss kafin theta decay ya yi aiki sosai.
Takardar ta gano kewayon mai amfani a matsayin kira na 10- zuwa 25-delta tare da karewa na akalla kwanaki 21. Mafi karfi shaida ya fito daga binciken taga mai juyawa. A kan hangen nesa na shekara daya, yawan riba mai kyau a cikin wannan kewayon ya kai kusan kashi 55% zuwa kashi 85%, yana nuna mahimmanci ga yanayin kasuwa. A kan hangen nesa na shekaru uku, goma sha daya daga cikin shirye-shirye goma sha biyu sun samar da riba mai kyau a akalla kashi 91% na tagogi masu juyawa, tare da biyar sun kai kashi 100%. Matsakaicin riba na shekara ya taru tsakanin kashi 4% da kashi 6%.
Ga masu zuba jari na Bitcoin, abin da za a dauka ba shine cewa covered calls sun lalace ba. Yana da cewa dabarun ya dogara sosai akan hanyar kasuwa. A cikin kasuwanni masu jinkiri ko masu faduwa, yana iya samar da kudin shiga mai ma'ana. A cikin hauhawar farashin mai karfi, ciniki guda ɗaya na iya barin masu rike da su kallon Bitcoin yana hauhawa yayin da aka riga an sayar da hauhawar farashinsu.
A lokacin bugawa, BTC ya yi ciniki a $73,113.
Hoton da aka ƙirƙira tare da DALL.E, ginshiƙi daga TradingView.com.
**Tambayoyi da Aka Yi Yawa**
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da ake yawan yi game da gargadin Anchorage game da cinikin ribar Bitcoin wanda ya rufe daga matakin farko zuwa na ci gaba
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko**
1. Menene cinikin ribar Bitcoin da Anchorage ke magana akai?
Dabara ce inda kuke ba da rancen Bitcoin ɗinku ta hanyar dandamali kamar Anchorage don samun riba. Ka yi tunanin shi kamar asusun ajiyar riba mai girma amma na Bitcoin.
2. Ta yaya samun riba akan Bitcoin zai iya iyakance ribar da nake samu?
Idan farashin Bitcoin ya tashi sosai, kuna iya rasa wani ɓangare na wannan hauhawar farashin. Lokacin da kuke ba da rancen BTC ɗinku, galibi ana kulle shi ko kuma ana amfani da shi a cikin samfura masu rikitarwa. Ba za ku iya sayar da shi nan take a farashin kololuwa ba, don haka ba za ku iya samun cikakkiyar riba daga hauhawar farashin ba.
3. Shin Anchorage yana cewa kada in ba da rancen Bitcoin ɗina?
Ba daidai ba. Suna yin gargadin cewa idan kun himmatu ga cinikin ribar, za ku iya rasa babban hauhawar farashin. Yana da musayar: kananan riba masu tsayayye yanzu da yuwuwar samun babbar riba guda daya daga baya.
4. Wanene Anchorage? Me yasa zan damu da gargadinsu?
Anchorage babban banki ne na crypto mai tsari. Suna rike da kadarorin dijital na biliyoyin daloli ga cibiyoyi. Lokacin da suka yi gargadi game da yanayin kasuwa, yana dogara ne akan bayanai masu zurfi da halayen abokan ciniki, don haka yana da daraja a kula.
5. Zan iya rasa Bitcoin ɗina ta hanyar yin cinikin ribar?
E, akwai hadari. Idan dandamalin da kuke ba da rancen ya samu kutse ko ya yi fatara, za ku iya rasa Bitcoin ɗinku. Cinikin ribar ba shi da hadari ko da an bayar da shi ta babban suna.
**Tambayoyi na Matsakaicin Mataki**
6. Menene ainihin abin da ke faruwa da Bitcoin ɗina lokacin da na saka shi a cikin cinikin ribar?
Yawanci ana ba da shi ga cibiyoyi waɗanda ke amfani da shi don short-selling ko arbitrage. Suna biyan ku riba don aro da tsabar kudin ku. Anchorage yana aiki a matsayin mai shiga tsakani.
7. Me yasa hauhawar farashin Bitcoin zai iya iyakance riba daga cinikin ribar?
Domin cinikin ribar sau da yawa ya hada da cinikin tushe. 'Yan kasuwa suna aro Bitcoin don shorting shi yayin da suke tafiya dogon lokaci akan futures. Idan farashin spot ya tashi da sauri fiye da futures, cinikin ya zama mara riba. Dandamali sai su rage riba ko kulle tsabar kudin ku don warware cinikin, suna hana ku sayarwa.