A new wave of speculation about Bitcoin price manipulation is spreading across crypto social media. This follows a disclosure that Jane Street added over 7.1 million shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing its total reported position to more than 20.3 million shares.
Online commentators are linking this filing to a long-standing rumor about a daily “10 AM” selling program. The core allegation is that the same sophisticated trading desk accumulating IBIT shares is also allegedly selling Bitcoin and related instruments every morning around 10 AM ET to drive prices down and secure better entry points.
However, market structure experts offer a blunt rebuttal: they argue that people are misreading a market maker’s inventory report as a directional investment bet. The viral post framing the 13F filing as an “accumulation story” was amplified by accounts like Milk Road, which described “persistent whispers” about institutional desks, including Jane Street, running a specific playbook to trigger panic and liquidations at the market open to buy back at lower prices. These accounts consistently stress the rumors are unverified.
Critics point to a key detail in the filing: the “Y” in the options column. Analysts like Louis LaValle of Frontier Investments argue this indicates the reported ETF position is likely delta-hedged, meaning it offsets risk from options activity. He explains that as a lead market maker and authorized participant for the ETF, Jane Street’s share holdings are primarily for managing volatility and facilitating creations/redemptions, not expressing a bullish or bearish view.
The pushback centers on mechanics, suggesting the increased share count in Q4 was an operational response to record volatility and trading demand, rather than evidence of a manipulative scheme.The response struck a similar tone, describing the discussion as “painful” and highlighting what the filing doesn’t show: “Jane Street may hold a position in IBIT, but that is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options and futures positions on IBIT. They are definitely not ‘accumulating’ Bitcoin. That’s simply how market making works.” Others were more blunt. Former proprietary trader Ryan Scott (“Horse”) cautioned: “Anyone presenting this as bullish is making a serious mistake. This should be framed as, ‘You’ll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positions that don’t require reporting.’ Jane Street is not taking a long position on Bitcoin.” Nik Bhatia focused on the underlying incentives: “Jane Street holds IBIT so it can write options, arbitrage, and engage in all the other strategies a quantitative trading firm uses to generate quick profits.”
Overall, the market-maker explanation aligns more closely with how such positions are usually managed. In contrast, the “10AM slam” narrative remains, for now, just a theory circulating on crypto social media rather than a verified claim. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $68,107.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Is Jane Street Influencing Bitcoin
BeginnerLevel Questions
What is the Jane Street Bitcoin Theory about
Its a viral online theory suggesting that the quantitative trading firm Jane Street Capital is secretly manipulating or heavily influencing the price of Bitcoin through largescale coordinated trading
Who is Jane Street
Jane Street is a highly respected private global trading firm known for its expertise in ETFs derivatives and quantitative finance They are major market makers meaning they help provide liquidity to make markets run smoothly
Why would anyone think theyre influencing Bitcoin
The theory gained traction because Jane Street is a designated Authorized Participant for the new spot Bitcoin ETFs This role allows them to create and redeem ETF shares which involves trading large amounts of Bitcoin Some people connect this structural role to unusual market movements
Is there any proof Jane Street is manipulating Bitcoin
No there is no concrete public evidence The theory is largely based on speculation circumstantial observations of trading patterns and the firms significant but legitimate role in the new ETF ecosystem
Whats an Authorized Participant and why does it matter
An AP is a firm that has the exclusive right to create new shares of an ETF or redeem existing ones To do this they must assemble large baskets of the underlying assetin this case Bitcoin Their trading activity to build these baskets is substantial and visible which can impact the market but its a standard transparent part of ETF mechanics
Advanced Practical Questions
How could an Authorized Participant legitimately influence Bitcoins price
Through sheer scale When a spot Bitcoin ETF has huge net inflows or outflows APs must buy or sell billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin on the open market to create or redeem shares This necessary highvolume trading can create buying or selling pressure that moves the price but its a function of investor demand not manipulation
Whats the difference between market influence and market manipulation
Influence A large legitimate players necessary actions cause market movements as a side effect This is legal and part of how markets work